Market frenzy received additional filips this week upon rumors that not only may China opt to essentially underwrite Italian debt (adding further confusion, perhaps, to the whole ‘Made in Italy/China” kerfuffle), but furthermore that perhaps the entire BRIC contingent would pass around a continent-wide, boosting collection jar in what some cynics quipped would ultimately amount to an ironic albeit ill-fated form of reverse-colonization. The comment ties nicely with last week’s Economist piece noting Angola’s sudden Portuguese shopping spree, a “first for Africa” whereby national oil company-cum-sovereign wealth vehicle, Sonangol, “acts as the government’s main dealmaker and overseas investor.” This got us to thinking that despite Absa Capital’s recent warning to clients that “the current bout of financial market turbulence and fears of a global economic slowdown . . . provide a new impediment to [sub-Saharan] growth . . . which may have a dampening effect on growth prospects in the region” there should emerge a divergence in performance between the region’s commodity net-buyers and sellers, which in turn should augment their respective monetary policy flexibility (i.e. to not have to choose between growth and inflation, a priceless luxury for any economy and especially against a stagnating global backdrop). The former group, admittedly, is commodity-derived cash rich and thus dependent on its exports to help build FX reserves, temper policy rates and buoy credit. Yet, per Absa, “in the absence of a sharp deterioration in global growth, commodities should remain an important pillar of growth [in Ghana, Nigeria and Angola], where firm oil prices of above USD110/bbl continue to support growth [and help] economic activity remain robust.” The latter group, meanwhile, already victims largely to poor diversification among its economic sectors, may get stuck in an inflation-importing conundrum a la Kenya currently, where climbing inflation (16.7% in August) sits in stark contrast with, per comments made by the country’s monetary policy committee, a relatively glum growth outlook for 2011H2.



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December 7, 2011 at 2:41 am
Inflation, rate dynamics continue to largely define Sub-Saharan market backdrop « Frontier Markets
[...] as well as tempering price stickiness such that capital costs remained controlled while the option to ease interest rates remained relatively viable–all in contrast with net importers such as Kenya and Uganda (a notable exception to this [...]
December 7, 2011 at 10:15 am
Inflation, rate dynamics continue to largely define Sub-Saharan market backdrop | FavStocks
[...] as well as tempering price stickiness such that capital costs remained controlled while the option to ease interest rates remained relatively viable–all in contrast with net importers such as Kenya and Uganda (a notable exception to this [...]